Category Archive: Credit Risk

Credit Risk Modelling: How Indian Fintech Startups Are Hitting a Home Run

After scoring high with top notch conglomerates, Indian economy is heating up more than ever – because of flourishing Indian fintech establishments that are popping up here and now.

 
Credit Risk Modelling: How Indian Fintech Startups Are Hitting a Home Run
 

In this blog, we will take a deeper look down into the mechanism how startups are doing well for themselves in this competitive world from a credit risk perspective. For that, we will dig deep into the personal account of an employee working in one of the notable startups in India, which deals with data analytics product for the financial services industry – what experiences he gathered while working in a startup sector, what advices he would like share and things like that will help us crack this industry better.

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Credit Risk Modelling: A Basic Overview

Credit Risk Modelling: A Basic Overview

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

The root cause for the Financial Crisis which stormed the globe in 2008 was the Sub-prime crisis which appeared in USA during late 2006. A sub-prime lending practice started in USA during 2003-2006. During the later parts of 2003, the housing sector started expanding and housing prices also increased. It has been shown that the housing prices were growing exponentially at that time. As a result, the housing prices followed a super-exponential or hyperbolic growth path. Such super-exponential paths for asset prices are termed as ‘bubbles’ So USA was riding a Housing price bubble. Now the bankers, started giving loans to the sub-prime segments. This segment comprised of customers who hardly had the eligibility to pay back the loans. However, since the loans were backed by mortgages bankers believed that with housing price increases the they could not only recover the loans but earn profits by selling off the houses. The expectations made by the bankers that asset prices always would ride the rising curve was erroneous. Hence, when the housing prices crashed the loans were not recoverable. Many banks sold off these loans to the investment banks who converted the loans into asset based securities. These assets based securities were disbursed all over the globe by the investments banks, the largest being done by Lehmann Brothers. When the underlying assets went valueless and the investors lost their investments, many of the investment banks collapsed. This caused the Financial Crisis and a huge loss of investors and tax-payers wealth. The involvement of Systematically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs) and Globally Systematically Important Financial Institutions (G-SIFIs) into the frivolous lending process had amplified the intensity and the exposure of the crisis.

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Sources Of Banking Risks: Credit, Market And Operational Risks

Banking risk refers to the future uncertainty which creates stochasticity in the cash flow from receivables of outstanding balances. Banking Risks can be described in the Vonn-Neumann-Morgenstern (VNM) framework of Money lotteries. In this framework, the set of outcomes are assumed to be continuous and monetary in nature, and the lottery is a list of probabilities associated with the continuous outcomes. When applied to the banking framework, the cash flows (the set of outcomes) are assumed to be continuous and stochastic in nature. A theoretical model for the risk is represented in the framework below:

 
Sources Of Banking Risks: Credit, Market And Operational Risks
 
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The Basics Of The Banking Business And Lending Risks:

The Basics Of The Banking Business And Lending Risks:
 

Banks, as financial institutions, play an important role in the economic development of a nation. The primary function of banks had been to channelize the funds appropriately and efficiently in the economy. Households deposit cash in the banks, which the latter lends out to those businesses and households who has a requirement for credit. The credit lent out to businesses is known as commercial credit(Asset Backed Loans, Cash flow Loans, Factoring Loans, Franchisee Finance, Equipment Finance) and those lent out to the households is known as retail credit(Credit Cards, Personal Loans, Vehicle Loans, Mortgages etc.). Figure1 below shows the important interlinkages between the banking sector and the different segments of the economy:

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Darker Clouds Covering the Cloud

Darker Clouds Covering the Cloud
 

New age technologies are dominating the present business environment. Mobility, cloud computing, social media and analytics have been affecting the different realms of business at an ever-increasing rate. Though most of the impacts are favourable, yet it will be reckless to ignore the severity of the negative ones.

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ANZ uses R programming for Credit Risk Analysis

At the previous month’s “R user group meeting in Melbourne”, they had a theme going; which was “Experiences with using SAS and R in insurance and banking”. In that convention, Hong Ooi from ANZ (Australia and New Zealand Banking Group) spoke on the “experiences in credit risk analysis with R”. He gave a presentation, which has a great story told through slides about implementing R programming for fiscal analyses at a few major banks.

 
ANZ uses R programming for Credit Risk Analysis
 

In the slides he made, one can see the following:

 

How R is used to fit models for mortgage loss at ANZ

A customized model is made to assess the probability of default for individual’s loans with a heavy tailed T distribution for volatility.

One slide goes on to display how the standard lm function for regression is adapted for a non-Gaussian error distribution — one of the many benefits of having the source code available in R.

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Apple Watch’s Strategy Analytics, Return to 1% Growth

As per the latest research from strategy analytics, the global smart watch shipments of Apple has grown by 1 percent annually to hit the major record of 8.2 million units in the 4th quarter of the year 2016. The growth of apple watch drove and got dominated with 63 percent in global smart watch share of market and Samsung still continues to hold its second position.
 
Apple Watch’s Strategy Analytics, Return to 1% Growth

 

Neil Mawston, the Executive Director at Strategy Analytics stated on the issue by saying – the global shipments have grown by 1 percent annually from the pre-existing 8.1 million units in quarter 4 in 2015 to 8.2 million in quarter 4 in 2016. The market shows a marked growth in the fourth quarter for growth in smart watches industry after the past two consecutive quarters for declining volumes. The smart watch growth is also seen to be recovering ever so slightly due to new product launches from other company giants. Moreover, there is a seasonal demand for these gadgets, and a giant such as Apple is launching stringer demand in the major developed markets in the US and UK. Hence, the international smart watch shipments grew by 1 percent annually; from the previously existing 20.8 million in full-year 2015 to a record high of 21.1 million in 2016.

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The Opportunities and Challenges in Credit Scoring with Big Data

Within the past few decades, the banking institutions have collected plenty of data in order to describe the default behaviour of their clientele. Good examples of them are historical data about a person’s date of birth, their income, gender, status of employment etc. the whole of this data has all been nicely stored into several huge databases or data warehouses (for e.g. relational).

 
The Opportunities and Challenges in Credit Scoring with Big Data
 

And on top of all this, the banks have accumulated several business experiences about their crediting products. For instance, a lot of credit experts have done a pretty swell job at discriminating between low risk and high risk mortgages with the use of their business mortgages, thereby making use of their business expertise only. It is now the goal of all credit scoring to conduct a detailed analysis of both the sources of data into a more detailed perspective with then come up with a statistically based decision model, which allows to score future credit applications and then ultimately make a decision about which ones to accept and which to reject.

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The Olympics Turn To Data Analysis: Canadian Olympic Committee Deals In With Analytics

The Canadian Olympic company has recently teamed up with a major Big Data Company to ramp up the analytics for the benefit of the athletes.

 
The Olympics Turn To Data Analysis: Canadian Olympic Committee Deals In With Analytics
 

Recently the COC made an announcement about an eight-year, cash and services sponsorship deal with SAS, which is an analytics software with a brag-worthy client list from varied industries, like universities, hotels, banks casinos and much more.

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Understanding Credit Risk Management With Modelling and Validation

The term credit risk encompasses all types of default risks that are associated with different financial instruments such as – (like for example, a debtor has not met his or her legal duties according to the debt contract), migrating risk (arises from adverse movements internally or externally with the ratings) and country risks (the debtor cannot pay as per the duties because of measure or events taken by political or monetary agencies of the country itself).

 

Understanding credit risk management with modelling and validation

                        Understanding Credit Risk Management With Modelling and Validation

 

In compliance to Basel Regulations, most banks choose to develop their own credit risk measuring parameters: Probability Default (PD), Loss Given Default (LGD), and Exposure at Default (EAD). Several MNCs have gathered solid experience by developing models for the Internal Ratings Based Approach (IRBA) for different clients.

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